Auston Matthews scored how many goals in his NHL debut? Four!? Oh wait, Flyers preview…right.
Ladies and Gentleman, we are on the eve of the Flyers 50th Anniversary season. Just let that sink in for a second…
Now I am only 23 years young, and have probably only been following hockey religiously for the past 8-10 years – but this is a great time to be a Flyers fan. Listen, I know the gold trimmed jerseys have everyone in a politically correct uproar, but this marks 50 years of Philadelphia Flyers hockey – Thank You Mr. Ed Snider!
Not only is this the 50th anniversary of the Flyers, but this season also introduces the future figuratively and literally.
Flyers prospects Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov, and Roman Lyubimov have all made the roster – and it seems like they will remain for the prolonged 82+ game season. This is huge news for the advancement of the prospects GM Ron Hextall has so meticulously been stewing in the juniors and abroad for the past couple of years.
The question for many fans is not with the talent in these new roster adds, or how they will be able to contribute. But rather, how long it will take them to bring Lord Stanley’s Cup to the city of Brotherly Love. Well – let’s take it down a notch by first breaking down how the 16’-17’ season looks for our beloved Philadelphia Flyers.
Let’s start with the offense…
Here’s how the projected lines look (yes, this factors in the Brayden Schenn suspension):
Michael Raffl – Claude Giroux – Wayne Simmonds
Travis Konecny – Sean Couturier – Jakub Voracek
Nick Cousins – Pierre Edward Bellemare – Dale Weise
Chris VandeVelde – Boyd Gordon – Matt Read
Obviously, when Brayden Schenn re-enters this lineup, things will move around. But let’s just entertain this lineup for now.
The Konecny, Coots, Voracek line proved its value in the preseason, expect this to be a solid puck possession line, especially when they get an understanding of each other’s neutral zone tendencies.
Voracek is key to the success of not only the second line, but this team’s offensive efforts in general. He looked great in preseason, his confidence in his shot is back, and his physical puck handling was very apparent. I expect him to have a bounce back season this year.
Claude Giroux gets a lot of hate. But guess what, he has even more weapons at his disposal now. And with his playmaker tag – trust in the Captain, he will get this offense organized and firing on all cylinders.
Sean Coutrier was just starting to break out before an injury suffered early last season caused him to miss a good portion of the year. He played with Team North America in the World Cup of Hockey and showed great offensive awareness as well as his well-known defensive forward attitude in preseason. His team play is also unmatched, dropping the gloves to stick up for line mate Jake Voracek after a big hit along the boards in a game against the Rangers.
Pierre Edward Bellemare had a great performance in the World Cup of Hockey with team Europe a couple weeks ago. Thus hinting at his move up to the third line. I except his assist totals to increase this year with the young-gun Nick Cousins working with him side by side.
Our fourth line will be better after the return of Brayden Schenn manily because either VandeVelde or Read will be made consistent healthy scratches. I am comfortable that the fourth line will be able to win face-offs with the help of Boyd Gordon, and keep the puck out of the zone for times when it counts the most.
Overall – our offense is primed to have a better year than last. This is the second year for the majority of these forwards in Dave Hakstol’s system. And the veterans will be able to help the new guys on the squad adapt to it that much quicker. Once Brayden Schenn returns from his three game suspension, we potentially have four complete and competitive lines that can provide offense as well as defensive assistance.
Now to the defense…
Here are the projected pairings (yes, this factors in Radko Gudas’s suspension):
Shayne Gostisbehere – Andrew MacDonald
Ivan Provorov – Mark Streit
Brandon Manning – Nick Schultz
As with the Brayden Schenn suspension, once Radko Gudas has finished his six game penalty – these lines will change. And the play of Andrew MacDonald and Brandon Manning in these first six games will determine which one will be sent down to Lehigh Valley.
It does stink that Gostisbehere has to start off the season with MacDonald. If you recall from last season, when Ghost had to be put with Andrew – his numbers dropped significantly. With that said, MacDonald did have a decent preseason. However, the main concern here is his speed. Ghost likes to take risks and move up on the puck in both the defensive and offensive zones. If an opponent gets it past him, there is little to no chance MacDonald will be able to cover the ice by himself appropriately. I expect Ghost to be lined up elsewhere upon Gudas’s return.
Another note on Shayne. I have heard a lot of people discuss the expectation for Ghost to come back in and perform even better than he did last year - statistically speaking. It’s not going to happen people. And if it does, then holy shit we are winning a cup sooner than I thought! He will play the same defensive style, he will still hold the blue line like Superman, and he should still be able to contribute on special teams. But do not expect the same scoring effort out of him as in his breakout performance last season.
Mark Streit is getting old. He can’t hold the blue line as well, but his defensive awareness is still there. And so is his slap shot. It is imperative that he is paired with Ivan Provorov while healthy, because it’s a match made in heaven. You have a veteran that can influence a young rookie like Ivan and can ease his transition into the NHL mindset. And you have a young rookie with fresh legs that will be able to make up for the agility and speed that Mark lacks. Did I mention Ivan has a wicked shot as well? Either of these two get a lane while at the point, that puck will be on net before you can say “shoot”.
Oh Brandon Manning. The poor man’s defenseman. He plays the boards well, and he tries - he really does. But he lacks positional awareness. He takes the wrong checks, he moves up when he should lay up, and he passes to the covered man rather than the open one. I don’t expect him to make too much improvement this season as he will only be playing for (hopefully) the first month of the season until the return of the injured Michael Del Zotto.
Not too many people are high on Nick Schultz, but guess what – I am. Now hold on, hear me out. He has the mind of Mark Streit, and the confidence of Shayne Gostisbehere. Now can his talent handle that shot confidence, no, absolutely not. But with the emergence of new young talent in defense with Provorov and more offensive weapons to help keep the puck on the other end of the ice, don’t expect him to resort to throwing the puck out there as often as he has in the past. A toned down Nick Schultz is a Nick Schultz I love for a third line pairing – as long as he focuses on the mental game, and can keep his position, he should be just fine this season.
Overall, this defense is obviously better with the addition of Ivan Provorov. It’s that simple. We have all the same guys as last year, plus Provorov. Now injuries and suspensions have caused the opening lineups to look a bit weak, and have forced Hakstol to set some pairings that we would rather not see. But that’s hockey. I don’t expect this defense to rely as much on our net minders as they did last season. Expect less shots on goal from the opposition, as well as less time spent in the defensive zone over the course of the season.
Finally, we have goaltending…
Steve Mason
Michael Neuvirth
Over the course of the off season, a big question on everyone’s mind was “Who is our goaltender?” Well, let me get this question out of the way right here, right now. They both are! And that is something the Philadelphia Flyers can rarely admit to! Having two starting goaltenders is like finding the needle in the haystack. Why are we complaining about this? Sure, with the expansion draft coming up next year – we are more than likely going to have to give one up (although I would prefer to trade one rather than just write them off to Las Vegas). But for now, the start of the 2016-2017 season, it is great to know that we have two guys that can go any given night. Now, if your question is “Who will Hakstol name number one?” That question is a little bit tough to answer. But I have my opinions…
Mason needs to stop making dumb mistakes. If not for his behind the net cough ups, or his late period giveaways, Neuvirth may have already been traded away at this point. He did just have a kid – and in the NHL, having children seems to give a little spark to player’s games and momentum on the ice. I expect Mason to improve mentally with his “dad powers”, which will help limit these simple mistakes throughout the season.
I still question Michael Neuvirth. I know I am in the minority. Mason played the majority of the great point-stretch we had at the end of last season which ultimately got us a playoff spot. Now I know Mason had a bad playoff performance (Mason haters will never let go that dreaded red-line goal), but he still had one of the best 5v5 save percentages in the league. The defensive core in front of him did not help a whole lot, and the offensive scoring on the opposite end was weak all season. Both of those aspects change this year.
Nevuirth had a very impressive regular season in his 15’-16’ campaign. But he is recently remembered for his tremendous play in the playoffs last season, acting as almost a saving grace to a team that looked to be swept. My biggest Neuvirth question lies in this performance. Before joining the Flyers, he was the backup goalie to the Washington Capitals for years! Thus, every practice, he was able to get in net while Holtby took some time to rest (since Holtby plays night in and night out and practices very little during the season), and learned tendencies of every forward on that squad. He learned the 5v5 systems, as well as the PP systems. And you bet your ass that he knew exactly when to sweep the crease to cover the one timer coming off Ovechkin from the left circle.
Health will play a big part in this number one competition throughout the season. Whoever can stay healthiest the longest will probably win the job in my book.
My number one goalie for the Flyers is Steve Mason. He is severely underrated throughout the entire NHL, and his stats show that he can perform on a consistent basis. And don’t get me wrong, I am still hoping Michael Neuvirth shows his stuff when the opportunity presents itself. But one of these goalies has to be traded. The value is just too high on them to waste away to the “Desert Knights”. Especially when our goalie prospects are some of the best in the league with Anthony Stolarz, Alex Lyon, Felix Sandstrom, and Carter Hart. Regardless – it is nice to know that the goalie situation in Philadelphia is looking very promising no matter the outcome of Mason vs. Neuvirth.
A quick note on special teams...
I am not going to go into special teams in this article, although I will say my prediction for this season is an increase in the standings for both Power Play Percentage (11th in the league last season), as well as Penalty Kill Percentage (20th in the league last season). I expect them to move up into the top 10 in PP% and into the top 15 with the PK unit. I will release a breakdown of our special team’s units in the next week or two after seeing system changes with the new roster.
Season Predictions...
We are not going to win the Stanley Cup this year. Sorry if that was where you thought this optimistic preview was going. But we will make the playoffs, and that should be applauded. I released my season predictions earlier this week and I have the Flyers ranking third in the Metropolitan Division with a record of 44-27-11 for a total of 99 points. I will be honest in saying that this is a high ceiling prediction for this squad with a lot of new faces and expectations.
Right now, the Flyers realistically are between 93-97 points in the regular season. But they have little wiggle room for error here. If they fail to hit 90 points, I will be concerned. And even more so, if they fail to at least reach a wild card spot, I will be even more concerned. Of course injuries will have their say in this matter – and we can cross that bridge when we get there. But this squad should be a lock for the playoffs.
The season starts tonight at 10:30 pm ET in Los Angeles against the Kings. Let’s Go Flyers!