Another winning week. A lot of people like to call me Mr. 60% towards the end of the season. Well I’m at 61% through Week 6 (not including the two pushes which didn’t lose you a dime). If you had put your mortgage down at the start of the season, not only would you still have your house – but you’d have a new car now too. This week’s slate is pretty decent, which means a lot of the lines were tough to look at. Luckily, while you can sleep in, enjoy a nice brunch, you know – relax on the weekend; I’m hard at work. No matter how tough Vegas wants to make it for the average joe, Joey Digest will not be fooled. Mr. 60%, we gotta pump those numbers!
TCU @ Iowa State: Away Team Total Points – TCU Over 20
I featured this pick format for the first time in last week’s digest, it hit, and now I’m addicted to single team O/U’s. TCU’s offense is putting up an average of 41.25 points per game. That alone should be a stat that tells you, you take this over. But for those weak of faith, I’ll bring you another stat just to solidify this. Iowa State gave up 20 points at home to LA Monroe. It looks like some thunderstorms are heading towards Jack Trice Stadium, but luckily, they are so soft in Ames – they won’t play until the winds have left the state. Maybe sprinkle a TCU spread in your teaser today too hint hint, wink wink.
Final Score: TCU 24, Iowa State 21
(7) Auburn @ (10) Florida: Auburn -2.5
This line actually opened at Auburn +3. 65% of the public made it swing, a lot. Typically, this would scare the shit out of me. Typically, I would have to roll with the Gators outright. Typically, I would steer clear of any spread and just take the under thinking a defensive battle is in store for the crowd in Gainesville. HOWEVER… I just cannot get off the Auburn train right now. They proved me wrong in week one and I’ve been War Eagle ever since. Both these teams have tough schedules ahead, but Auburn has LSU, Georgia, and Alabama as 3 of their last 6 opponents. I do not believe this is the letdown game for the Tigers.
Final Score: Auburn 21, Florida 17
Baylor @ Kansas State: Kansas State -1
Baylor snuck out a huge win against the Cyclones last week. Kansas State got stomped by Oklahoma State. Opposite energies coming into this match up. The only reason the Bears got the victory last week was their ability to move the ball on third down. Well, Kansas State is third in the nation in third down stops. Kansas State’s motivation for a bounce back game will prove victorious today.
Final Score: Kansas State 27, Baylor 21
(25) Michigan State @ (4) Ohio State: Ohio State -20
This is another ‘ride the goddamn wave like Patrick Swayze in Point Break’ mentality. Ohio State at home, under the lights, against a Big Ten opponent… no, no one can convince me this is a let down spot. Ohio State will bring the hammer just like they have all season. A side note… right now, the odds for Ohio State to win the National Championship are at +950. That seems like pretty decent value right now for a team that has been rolling from the jump, and a story line that just makes sense. The year after a little scandal, Urban Meyer ‘leaving’, Justin Fields with something to prove? I like Ohio State a lot right now. A lot. I like them a lot.
Final Score: Ohio State 42, Michigan State 17
Cal @ (13) Oregon: Under 46.5
Cal upset #15 Washington a couple weeks ago, they beat Ole Miss by 8, and they held their own in another Pac-12 ranked team in Arizona State. They can put up a fight. The chance, on the road, to bring it to the darlings of the Pac-12? I like this to be a closer game then people think (spread currently 20 points in favor of the Ducks). With that said, Oregon’s defense has found their identity. The most points they’ve given up were 27 in a week one neutral spot against Auburn. Since then? 6, 3, and 6. That’s it! If Cal wants to keep this close, it has to be on the defensive side of the ball. That’s the only way. I’m going thick sack.
Final Score: Oregon 27, Cal 13
BONUS PHILLY SUBURB 8TH GRADE CYO FOOTBALL LOCK OF THE WEEK
For those of you who have been living under a rock, Front Stoop Sports own Matt McNally is assistant coaching the Saint Agnes Sacred Heart (SASH) Crusaders this season. He sent me a line this morning and I can’t just let it sit in my iMessage’s without telling the public about it. Why? Cause I have the inside information on the game. I know everything about it. The Crusaders are facing Saint Mary Magdalen on a neutral field in Springfield, PA. The line is set at SMM -7.5, O/U 24.5. The Crusaders are 1-3. Apparently, the offense hasn’t been the best of late. Nothing to do with the coach of course, the talent on the field is just lacking. I did some research and found the online printout of SMM’s football flyer.
Just look at those kids. At least 4 of those units are guaranteed to earn a gold jacket in their lifetime. I would never doubt Mr. Matt’s ability to coach a great game… but the odds are just stacked against the Crusaders in this one.
-7.5 and the under. Prop bet – not one extra point or field goal made +350
Final Score: SMM 18, SASH 6
Running Record: (14-9-2)