Readers of FSS, I am excited to join a great team and bring you picks on a regular basis. Before you start blindly trusting a random guy on the internet for your picks, let me give you an insight into what I normally bet on, how I determine what teams to take, and how bad I am at gambling.
First things first – what does this bozo bet on? Well the short answer is; everything. However, I’m going to shield you from all my EPL, tennis, golf, NBA, and NHL losers and only give you stuff I am decent at, NFL and MLB.
So now you might ask how I determine what teams to take and I’ll fill you in on a secret, it has nothing to do with a team’s skill level. Most of my picks are based on line movement, if I see a team getting big action from big bettors to move a line, I’ll normally hop on. If I see a lot of tickets placed on a certain team, but the line moves in the favor of the opponent, I’m taking the opponent. Vegas, I’m onto you. Just because you keep taking my money doesn’t mean I don’t see what you are trying to do.
Lastly, I’m not a great gambler, no one is. Anyone that tells you they are is lying to you. Just know that I normally go out on a limb by fading myself because that seems to be one of the few ways I make money doing this beautiful sports gambling thing. If you decide to blindly follow I will take solace in knowing that someone I have never met is enjoying the ride with me. If you decide to fade, I’m happy at least someone is making money off my picks.
Anyway – THE PICKS
Miami @ Browns (-10.5)
The Dolphins have sneaky been a covering machine, covering in 4 of their last 5 games. The Browns, well, they are the Browns, going 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 and losing their best defensive player to suspension last week. All signs point to Miami covering here…which is why we are taking the Browns at -9.5 (buy the point down to -130 you cheap fucks). The reasoning is that this game opened at -9 and even with 61% of the tickets on the Dolphins the line has jumped in the Browns favor. Vegas is begging on more people to bet the Dolphins which is why we see value in the Browns. Hammer this bad boy for 3 units and you can thank me after
Pick: Browns -9.5 (-130)
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3.5)
This is where you guys are going to start noticing a trend with me, I buy points. I get them down or below/above football numbers based on which side I am betting on. At the moment I’m writing this blog the Falcons are 3.5 point favorites with 70% of the tickets placed on them. The line originally opened at 3 and I am sure it will continue to rise. Grab this puppy down to Falcons -3 at -140 and get it fast. If you can get the Falcons down to -2.5 at -150 or higher, I would take that juice with no questions asked and watch your account fill with the cash
Pick: Falcons -3 (-140)
Denver @ Bills (-4)
Here we have one of those classic lines that I can’t wrap my brains around. The Broncos STINK, and the Bills are actually kinda good. So what we got here is a situation where I’m going to fade myself. In a normal world I am taking the Bills and not even thinking twice about it. In this alternate universe we are now living in the pick is the Broncos. Broncos are sneaky good at covering the spread. 4-1 in their last 5 and 5-2 this season as an underdog. Bills are 2-3 at home ATS and 3-3 this season as a favorite. Don’t be a baby, buy the half point to 4.5 at -120 in case we get a 17-13 game.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-120)
Once Sunday comes around, if you end up having any complaints about the above please forward them to @FSS_JoeWalker on twitter. If things somehow end up going well, give me a shout @saambodytoldme, also on the twitter.
Thanks for reading, good luck to you all.