Loyal readers, welcome back to our normal weekly installment of Sᾱm’s Spreads. Even with a 2-1 record, due to poor unit management, last week was our first losing week of our brief stint together (-0.4 units). The good news is I absolutely love the board this week. There are picks that make no sense, picks that had plenty of reverse line movement and we are all here to make money together. So let’s get right into it:
THE PICKS
Colts @ Buccaneers (-3)
Losers of 4 of their last 5 the Colts are very cold. They haven’t looked anything like the team that was scorching the earth to start the season and this game could very much decide their playoff fate. The Bucs are the exact opposite. Winners of their last 2 and averaging 31.5 points per game in that span. The fun thing in this game is the line movement. Bucs started as a measly one-point favorite and there has been a large number of bets placed on the Colts. Up to 60%! Yet the line has still moved in the Buccaneers favor to -3. If you’ve learned anything about me, I love betting on these trends. Therefore, the pick is 100/100 times the buccaneers and we are putting a nice 2 units on it. Oh and buy the hook if you can get it at -150 or better.
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-150)
Ravens @ Bills (+6)
In my mind, this might end up being the best game of the weekend in a week 14 full of great games. The Ravens currently have the top spot in the conference and the Bills are fighting for the top spot in the AFC east. Surprisingly enough, the Bills win this game and they can control their own destiny to not only being the AFC east champion, but to becoming the TOP SEED in the AFC. Honestly never thought I’d ever be writing those words. Any who, if you haven’t been following these two teams, they have LOVED to cover in their last 5 games. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 while the Bills are 4-0-1 in that same time frame. This makes handicapping the game that much harder, but luckily, we have some line movement! Ravens opened the game at -7 and are now down to -6, all with 70% of bets placed on the Ravens. This means we are betting the Bills and again we are putting 2 units on it. Luckily for me my book actually has the spread at 6.5 at -120 and I’ll be buying the half point to get the nice round 7.
Pick: Bills +7 (-140)
Seahawks @ Rams (PK)
Last, but not least we have the “this makes no sense” pick of the week. Seahawks opened at -3 and have now moved to a pick em. Square picks of all square picks is the Seahawks, which is why we are taking the Rams and I’ll tell you why. A big stat that I love is point differential. The two best teams in the league in my mind are the Ravens and Patriots, both holding a +187 and +177 point differential, respectively. As a 10-2 team the Seahawks only have a 3-point differential advantage over these 7-5 Rams, 36-33. As much as I hate betting against Russel Wilson, we are taking the Rams in what I expect to be a very exciting game. 1 unit.
Pick: Rams PK (-110)
YTD: 3-3 +/- 0.0 units
As always, if you end up having any complaints about the above please forward them to @FSS_JoeWalker on twitter. If things somehow end up going well, give me a shout @saambodytoldme, also on the twitter.