FSS readers, welcome back! I really hope for both our sakes you bought some hooks last week. Turned a push into a win and a loss into a push. Overall, we went 2-0-1 (+3 units)! Bookmaker didn’t even know what hit him/her (it is almost 2020). As we wind down the year this is where the unthinkable happens in games. Some teams are tanking, some are trying to knock out their rivals, and you got a few teams locked in place and are just trying to make it to the playoffs as a healthy team. This is where our job becomes a lot harder. Luckily, we got some Vegas tells via line movement that we can dive into, so let us get right to it:
THE PICKS
Bills @ Steelers (-1.5)
Last week we bought the Bills to 7 and they saved us with a backdoor cover. Realistically all the signs point to the Bills this week. They are 5-1 straight up on the road this year and 5-0-1 ATS in those games. Some (Sᾱm) might say that is pretty good! They also have 75% -SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT- of the bets placed on them this week. When all signs point one way, we do some zigging and zagging and go the other way. Even with all this money pouring in on the Bills the line went from Steelers -1 to Steelers -1.5. With the amount of money being placed on the Bills that is significant enough for me to buy in on the Steelers. Plus it doesn’t hurt that the Steelers are 3-1-1 in their last 5 ATS. When the line is this low at 1.5 we don’t bother with the points. Take the Steelers ML and put 2 units on it. Maybe hit the club and get yourself a table with all the money you win on this game.
Pick: Steelers ML (-125)
Eagles @ Redskins (+5)
There is not a single team in the NFL that has lost me more money this season than the Eagles. They STINK. I don’t quite understand what in my right mind has me continuing to bet on them, but I am about to snap out of it. Not this week Eagles, not this week. The Skins have covered in their last three games and are kinda playing decent football?? (kinda)?? The Eagles however, are not. They haven’t covered in their last 4 and are losing players to injury left and right. So why? WHY? Is 65% of the public betting on the Eagles? I honestly couldn’t tell you. But even with the Eagles opening as 6-point favorites, and 65% of the public on the Eagles, the line has dropped to -5. So, I am finally going to snap out of my funk and bet against the Eagles. I’m sure that will only lead to good things, right? 1 unit.
Pick: Redskins +5 (-120)
Bucs @ Lions (Over/Under 45.5)
The dreaded over/under picks are back, and we are going back to our bread and butter; The Buccaneers. Last two weeks we’ve been on the right side of Bucs games, two weeks ago we had the under, last week we had them -2.5. Gambling aside let’s look at the state of both of these teams. Last week the Bucs lost Mike Evans and his second fiddle, Chris Godwin, is now THE guy. Unfortunately for him he has to play against one of the top corners in the league in Darius Slay. The Lions on the other hand are trying to be as bad as bad can be. They have only scored 10 points in their last 6 quarters with 7 of them coming in the waning seconds of a blowout loss. And now back to the gambling side. This line opened at 47.5 and 72% of the incoming bets have been on the over. Yet the line has dropped to 45.5. When you have the opportunity to be a sharp, you become a sharp. Ladies and Gents, this is our opportunity. Under, Under, Under! 1 unit.
Pick: Under 46 (-120)
YTD: 5-3-1 +3 units
As always, if you end up having any complaints about the above please forward them to @FSS_JoeWalker on twitter. If things somehow end up going well, give me a shout @saambodytoldme, also on the twitter.