The National Championship game we’ve all been waiting for. The SEC Championship rematch, except the reverse of what we predicted wayyyyyy back in Week 3 I think?
I’ve had almost two weeks to think about this game. I also strategically waited to look at line movement because I think it speaks volumes to where this game is going to stand in a live environment seeing as my assumption of Alabama opening as a favorite was wrong.
Just over 60% of the bets are on the Crimson Tide and the line has barely budged. In fact, some books are still showing Alabama +3 to +3.5!. I mean, there’s really only one way I see this. Based on public perception, money coming in on Bama, but there not being any change in line movement - the line opened the way it did for a reason. Vegas is begging you to bet Bama. I know I have preached time and time again, you don’t get rich betting against Bama. And I know I have also been on the side of ‘Saban mentally owns Kirby’. But I just can’t trust this line at all. Have to take the Dogs. We know they’ve been the better team all season long, and they should finish that way. If the Crimson Tide were a little healthier offensively, I may look at the SEC Championship game a little differently. And with that in mind, I also have to take the under. Every national championship of late always goes over, so the under is totally due. It currently stands at 52.5 - which is wildly low (69% (nice) of the bets are on the over and it’s gone down a half point since the open). Also - if you think the best squad for each team (between offensive team, defensive team, and special teams) isn’t the defense, you’re dead wrong. It’s quietly the reason both of these teams are in this game. Only way Alabama wins this is stopping the Bulldogs offense. Only way Georgia wins this is by limiting Alabama’s ability to score, and score quickly.
(3) Georgia @ (1) Alabama: Georgia -2.5, Under 52.5
Final Score: Georgia 28, Alabama 24
Running Record: (143-115-4)
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